THE OTHER SIDE OF
EVERY ELECTION.

The Opposition's Tactical Adaptation

Congress, despite being out of power in Jaipur, found a way back into the contest. More importantly, it did something it has often struggled to do in Rajasthan — accept that in some regions, defeating the BJP required working with strong local players rather than competing against them.

The results showed why:

These were not simply cases where opposition votes happened to fall in the right direction. They reflected a larger change in opposition strategy. Congress was willing to leave political space for regional forces where those forces had stronger local networks and stronger candidates.

Kota: A Win That Still Raises Questions

Kota is one seat worth watching closely. Om Birla retained the constituency in 2024, so at the most basic level BJP got the result it wanted. But the margin tells a more interesting story:

Gunjal himself made the contest unusual. He had spent years in the BJP before crossing over to Congress after his relationship with the party deteriorated. A sitting Lok Sabha Speaker still winning is not a political crisis. But when a margin falls that sharply in one election cycle, both parties pay attention.

Kota is no longer a constituency that should automatically be placed in the “safe” column without looking deeper at the Assembly segments underneath it.

Barmer and the Ravindra Bhati Factor

Barmer was probably Rajasthan's most discussed Lok Sabha contest. Congress fielded Ummeda Ram Beniwal. BJP had Union minister Kailash Choudhary. But much of the campaign conversation revolved around neither of them. It revolved around Ravindra Singh Bhati.

Bhati had already demonstrated his independent appeal by winning the Shiv Assembly constituency after the BJP denied him a ticket. In the Lok Sabha election, he again showed that a candidate with a strong personal connection on the ground can build momentum without depending entirely on a traditional party organisation.

For BJP and Congress, Bhati represents a type of challenge Rajasthan may see more often: a locally popular leader who does not need either national party to remain politically relevant. That becomes particularly important in areas where voters are increasingly willing to separate their choice of candidate from their choice of party.

Jodhpur and the Resilience of the Mewar Belt

Jodhpur also became more competitive than many expected. Union minister Gajendra Singh Shekhawat faced Congress candidate Karan Singh Uchiyarda, who is considered close to Sachin Pilot. BJP eventually retained the seat, but the fact that Congress was able to turn it into a serious campaign battle indicates that even apparently comfortable urban constituencies cannot be taken entirely for granted.

That does not mean BJP's Rajasthan map has suddenly become weak — far from it.

Chittorgarh continues to be a strong BJP seat under C.P. Joshi. Bhilwara, Rajsamand, Pali, Udaipur and Jhalawar have also remained deeply difficult terrain for Congress. Across much of southern Rajasthan and the Mewar belt, BJP has repeatedly built very large margins that Congress has still not found a reliable formula to break.

Rajasthan Cannot Be Read Through One Caste Formula

One of the mistakes outsiders make with Rajasthan elections is trying to reduce the entire state to one caste equation. The reality is far more local:

• The political combination that works in Shekhawati is not necessarily what works in Hadoti
• Mewar behaves very differently from Marwar
• Tribal constituencies follow another political logic altogether

Broadly, BJP remains strong across many urban constituencies and several Rajput-influenced areas. Congress has traditionally performed better in parts of the Jat-dominated rural belt and among sections of the tribal electorate.

The rise of the Bharat Adivasi Party means tribal politics can no longer be understood simply as a Congress-versus-BJP contest. In parts of southern Rajasthan, BAP is building an independent political identity around tribal representation rather than functioning merely as another opposition vehicle.

And underneath all these calculations remains one basic reality: Rajasthan is still overwhelmingly rural. Agriculture, irrigation, water availability, electricity, crop prices, employment and access to government services continue to shape political conversations. Campaigns that look impressive on social media but fail to understand these local concerns will struggle outside major city limits.

Internal Equations & The 200-Seat Assembly Test

There is another political story developing quietly inside the BJP. Vasundhara Raje remains one of the most recognisable political figures in Rajasthan, yet when BJP returned to power in December 2023, the party chose Bhajan Lal Sharma as chief minister — a clear generational and organisational shift. When a party is winning comfortably, internal tensions remain manageable; they become far more important when margins start narrowing.

Congress has its own challenge: its 2024 Lok Sabha strategy benefited from cooperation with parties such as BAP, RLP and CPI(M). But Lok Sabha alliances are comparatively easier to negotiate because there are only 25 seats. Assembly politics involves 200 constituencies, many local aspirants, and far more leaders unwilling to surrender seats they believe they can personally win.

Kota South: The BJP's Urban Bastion

Kota South has remained one of the BJP's stronger urban seats for years. The party has lost the constituency only once since the early 1990s, in 1998. A strong organisational base, including the RSS network, has helped the BJP maintain continuity here even when the wider political mood in Rajasthan has shifted.

The constituency also has a sizeable Brahmin and Vaishya population, along with a significant minority vote. But reducing the seat entirely to caste would be misleading. Organisation, candidate familiarity and long-term booth-level presence have mattered just as much.

Kota North: The Shanti Dhariwal Bastion

Kota North has followed a very different political path. For years, the constituency has been closely associated with senior Congress leader Shanti Dhariwal.

Dhariwal has been part of Kota politics since well before the present Assembly boundaries took shape. In 2003, he contested the old Kota constituency against Om Birla and lost by a little over 10,000 votes. After delimitation, Kota North became his main political base. He won the seat in 2008, returned again in 2018 and managed to retain it in 2023.

The 2024 Lok Sabha Clash: Gunjal vs. Birla

Within months, the contest produced an unexpected political turn: Gunjal left the BJP, joined Congress and was fielded against Om Birla in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

That made the parliamentary election unusually personal. Gunjal was not an outsider being brought into Kota to contest an election. He had spent years inside the BJP's local organisation and had his own political base, relationships and network of workers. He was now contesting against a leader from the same political ecosystem he had previously been part of.

For the BJP, it was still a win. But the scale of the decline was difficult to ignore. Part of that change was linked to the broader political mood in Rajasthan in 2024. But Kota also had its own local explanation: Gunjal entered the contest with years of visibility and relationships within the BJP's traditional support structure.

A defection like this does not automatically transfer an entire organisation, but it disturbs local equations. Some workers stay with the party; some follow the leader; others simply become less enthusiastic. Even a small shift of this kind matters in a close election.

The Rural Counterbalance

At the same time, the Lok Sabha constituency extends far beyond Kota city. Segments such as Bundi, Keshoraipatan, Pipalda, Sangod, Ladpura and Ramganj Mandi have generally provided the BJP with a stronger electoral base. That wider geography helped Birla hold the seat even as the contest in the urban core became dramatically tighter.

This is what makes Kota useful as a constituency study: a Lok Sabha seat may look like a single electoral unit on a map, but politically it is made up of several smaller contests. Kota North can vote one way while Kota South votes another. The rural Assembly segments can then move the final Lok Sabha result in a completely different direction.